If you like to keep an eye on the property market you’ll know that there are plenty of house price reports out there to choose from. Here’s a round up of the latest, major local and national reports from the last month.
ESPC House Price Report – January 2018
ESPC’s latest house price report, which covers activity in the three months to end January, shows that the average house price across East Central Scotland has risen by 7.2% to £232,010.
Within Edinburgh itself the average house price was found to have risen by 9.5% annually and now stands at £250,894.
House price growth was found to be particularly high in popular first-time buyer areas. The average selling price of a one-bedroom flat in and around Leith was reported to have risen by 12.1% annually. In Dalry and Gorgie there was an even sharper increase with the average price of a one-bedroom flat more than 26% higher than it was a year ago.
Registers of Scotland - December 2017
The Registers of Scotland record details of all residential property sales in Scotland. Their latest report, released in February and covering sales in December 2017 showed that house prices across Scotland rose by 7.7% annually bringing the price of a home north of the border to £148,783.
House price growth in Edinburgh was among the fastest in Scotland. A 10.0% annual increase brought the average selling price of a property in the Capital to £247,842 in December.
Halifax House Price Index – January 2018
Turning to the UK-wide housing market, the latest report from Halifax showed that house prices across the country rose by 2.2% annually. That marked the lowest rate of annual growth since July 2017.
Nationwide House Price Index – January 2018
The latest Nationwide report saw house prices across the UK rise by 3.2% annually in January this year. This meant inflation was slightly higher than at the end of 2017 but they went on to note that “activity has been subdued on both the demand and supply side of the market”.
What It All Means
Because the different house price reports rely on slightly different methodologies to come up with their figures, you can always see slight differences in what they report in a given month. In the long run they tend to show very similar trends and there is a clear picture emerging here.
The property market remains strong for sellers in Scotland and in particular for those in Edinburgh and the Lothians. In other areas of the UK there are clear signs that the market is starting to slow down. House price growth in England and Wales is typically slower and activity amongst buyers and sellers is relatively subdued.
The obvious question is whether the slowdown south of the border will have a knock-on effect here? Many of the factors impacting the market in England and Wales also affect the property market in Scotland. Additionally, the sort of rapid house price growth we are currently seeing in many areas of Scotland is not sustainable over the longer term, so it would be logical to assume that we will start to see house price inflation here start to cool in the months ahead.
As we have noted before, the biggest factor driving house price growth in the last two years has been a lack of properties coming onto the market. One of the most common reasons that sellers have held off putting their property onto the market is that they have been unable to find a property that they wish to buy which created something of a vicious circle. Would be sellers delay putting their home on the market due to a lack of properties to buy, but there is a lack of properties available to buy because many sellers have delayed putting their properties on the market.
We are starting to see signs that more sellers are now taking the plunge and putting their property on the market. Some have been attracted by the high house price growth that we have seen over the last 18 months. Others have decided that by putting their property onto the market and getting it sold it puts them in a stronger position when buying as they will not have to submit an offer that is subject to sale.
As a result we have seen a rise in the number of homes coming onto the market recently. In the three months to January, Warners has seen an annual rise of more than 30% in new listings.
All told, we should expect to see inflation in Edinburgh, and indeed across Scotland, fall into line with the more modest levels we are seeing in the rest of the UK as 2018 progresses.
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